Tassos Papadopoulos promised a solution to the long-standing Cyprus problem before he was elected in 2003 as president. After five years, Mr Papadopoulos who has only ever met Mr Talat, the Turkish Cypriot leader twice has managed to isolate Cyprus within the EU, strained relations with Britain, failed to put pressure on Turkey to change even 1% in her policy, while the island still remains exactly the same as it was in 2003 – divided. Meanwhile the north is increasingly populated by settlers from Turkey, with business booming based on the sale of properties of those Cypriots dispossessed. With a five year legacy of regression, Cyprus' Presidential Election this weekend will be remembered for years, maybe even decades to come as a make or break in the search for a solution to the Cyprus problem.

CYPRUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2008

On Sunday February 17 and again on February 24, Cyprus faces a historic Presidential election. The three main candidates in this Presidential election are seventy four year old incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos who is standing for re-election. President of the House of Representative, AKEL leader Demetris Christofias and DISY MEP and Clerides's Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides. DIKO, EDEK, the European Party and the Cyprus Green party back Papadopoulos' bid, while the United Democrats (EDI) and his own party AKEL support Christofias' bid and DISY is joined by Kinima Eleftheron Politon and Evropaiki Dimokratia in backing Kasoulides. Estimations of support have all varied from poll to poll. But according to Noverna, on November 22 last year, 30.1% of Greek Cypriot voters supported Papadopoulos, against 28.4% for Christofias and 27.1% for Kasoulides. In the latest opinion Noverna poll on January 17, Papadopoulos' support remained steady at 30.1% of the vote, while Christofias' vote rose to 29.1% and Kasoulides' rose slightly higher to 30.5%.

CRUCIAL TIME

Tassos Papadopoulos was first elected President of the Republic of Cyprus after an outright victory in the Presidential Elections on 16 February 2003 after a 51.51% win in the first round. Papadopoulos was chosen at a crucial time in Cyprus' history when Turkish Cypriots marched on the streets to stand up against 40 years of partitionist policies by Rauf Denktash to the attention of the world media. It was a time when Denktash rejected the Annan Reunification Plan while most of the Turkish Cypriots supported it. It was the closest Cyprus came to reunification.

'A GOOD DEAL'

Fast forward a year, before the 24 April referendums,  Papadopoulos returned from Burgenstock to tell Greek Cypriots voters that he would not exchange a state (the Republic of Cyprus) for a community. His argument suggested that 'doing away with our internationally recognised state exactly at the very moment it strengthens its political weight, with its accession to the European Union ' was politically unwise. Papadopoulos thus made very little effort at the Burgenstock talks to secure the best interests of his Greek Cypriot community as a leader of that community or to prevent Turkey getting concessions which helped deliver the Greek Cypriot No vote. Holding out for better gains after Cyprus joined the EU later in May, Papadopoulos promised Greek Cypriots a 'better' deal later on. He played a risky political game.

PAPADOPOULOS' GREAT GAMBLE

But did Papadopoulos' great gamble succeed? Circumstances following Cyprus' EU accession have proven that Papadopoulos' game failed miserably. He was naïve to assume that the EU would put pressure on Turkey, an important British and American ally with a population of 72 million people and with the second largest army in NATO. There is nothing worse than under-estimating what you are up against. As a result of Papadopoulos' overconfidence the unthinkable has happened. UK-Republic of Cyprus relations have hit rock bottom with the recent Strategic Partnership between Turkey and UK. There are rumours that the UK government is encouraging Turkish Cypriots to set up their own separate structures to lobby Westminster and counter the Greek Cypriots. The UK will soon establish direct trade with the TRNC, which may lead to a Taiwan model emerging there. Papadopoulos Government has become increasingly isolated within the EU. To all appearances Cyprus' EU accession has made not an inkling of difference to Turkey's EU bid. Turkey has recently closed its second chapter for EU accession and has the support of the UK and numerous other countries. Furthermore, Greco-Turkish relations are the best they have ever been and trade between the two countries has increased to its highest level. Meanwhile in Cyprus nothing in the status quo has changed; in fact it has got worse, support by Turkish Cypriots for reunification is falling while the island remains militarised, divided and human rights issues unresolved for all Cypriots.

HEAVY PRICE

Cypriots are paying a very heavy price for Papadopoulos gambling habits. A megalomaniac, a self-declared hero, a warrior, Papadopoulos still thinks he can actually take on Turkey, without the support of the US and the EU, particularly Greece and Britain which he actively discourages. But can Cypriots who desire a lasting peace afford to be isolated from the world? Surely, Cypriots need to build bridges where Turkey has built bridges, strengthen relations where Turkey has and even talk to Turkey. Perhaps Mr Papadopoulos who is loved and adored by Turkish nationalist media as a hero in the Denktash mould should avoid politics all together and retire to Vegas or the casinos of northern Cyprus. Recently while discussing the election with some Turkish student friends I was expecting discontent over Papadopoulos by Turks  for what media has described as his "Turk bashing" past.  But they believed Papadopoulos had actually diverted attention away from Turkey who they believe now has the moral high ground in Cyprus.

DANGEROUS WAITING GAME

Indeed Papadopoulos' procrastination and over legalistic attention to the prospect of an ideal settlement have offered Turkey plenty of free time and even support. Nobody, except a few Cypriots and non influential Cypriot watchers now questions the occupation; nobody questions the continued violation of human rights of all Cypriots, nor the apartheid they are forced to live in. During Papadopoulos' waiting game the demographics of northern Cyprus is changing fast as settlers from Turkey are moving into northern Cyprus. Yeni Duzen and Afrika newspaper in north Cyprus recently declared that 50,000 settlers would be granted TRNC citizenship. As the population in the north changes so too will future conditions to a peace deal unless a Cypriot president can work towards a solution fast, encouraging Turkey to support the process because without that the north will become Turkey. If left to wait, there may be no Turkish Cypriots in north Cyprus with which any President of the Republic can talk to.

PAPADOPOULOS' FALSE SECURITY AND STABILITY

In the Republic too, relying on support from the business community and over emphasis on the fruits of the "Economic Miracle," Papadopoulos is lulling Greek Cypriots into false hopes of economic and political stability. While the Republic has a per Capita income higher than Israel and most Eastern European countries and while Cyprus is now in the Eurozone, the national question remains unresolved.   Cyprus' current economy may be strong but don't be fooled by this brief eerie silence?  Cypriots are in the eye of the storm and still need to negotiate the tail of the storm. Thinking long term, do Cypriots not want to see a peace solution in their country that would reunify their island? Do they like the look of barricades, barbed wire and presence of troops? Do they want their offspring to grow up in the same militarised island? Do they really think they can build a wall and forget Turkey? 

DECISIVE ELECTION

Michael Moller's significant statement that the UN will not start a new process until Cypriots show that they want a solution, means that whoever is elected they and Mehmet Ali Talat need to do their homework and preferably together.  But Sunday's election, and the one that is sure to follow on the next Sunday, are decisive as they will determine the future of the island as a whole, the readiness of Greek Cypriots for a solution and the speed at which Cypriots working together can achieve this.  While the election result is not a mandate for reunification, a vote for Papadopoulos is clearly what is needed in Ankara to keep delaying a solution while getting them off the hook regarding their obligations.