Hailed by some Turkish Cypriots as a solution in itself, the “Taiwan Model” is one of many ‘models’ considered as a panacea to the community’s problems. A non-recognised state or political entity like the TRNC, Taiwan has unresolved problems with its neighbour but by contrast can trade freely with many states in the world despite its unofficial status. This week however, Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat publicly rejected the Taiwan model as an “unacceptable” approach for Turkish Cypriots claiming that the Asian entity has little or no political and commercial rights in the world. Aware of the unresolved wider effects of the Cyprus problem, Talat rightly says nothing less than political equality for the Turkish Cypriot community is acceptable. But why exactly is Taiwan unacceptable as a model? 

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The Republic of China (ROC) known simply as ‘Taiwan’ in the West is a partially recognized state in East Asia. Historically it encompassed all of modern day China but after the Chinese Civil War and the defeat of the Kuomintang (KMT) or Chinese Nationalist Party by Communist forces, the KMT moved to islands of Taiwan, Lanyu, Pescadores, Kinmen, and Matsu off the coast of mainland China. Two million exiled Chinese Nationalists and established a government for “all of China” on the island in 1949. The ROC has remained detached from mainland China since, but for a long time established a close relationship with the United States which provides security to the islands for its own strategic interests. Oddly, representing only 23 million Chinese compared to the one billion one hundred million in China, until 1971 the ROC and not the PRC represented China at the United Nations. A mixture of anti-Communist sentiment and economic trade meant that the ROC was long internationally regarded as the ‘real’ China.  

ECONOMIC SUCCESS

Within a short time, Taiwan “transformed itself from a recipient of U.S. aid in the 1950s and early 1960s to an “Asian tiger economy,” aid donor and major foreign investor in the region. “The lack of formal diplomatic relations with all but 25 of its trading partners appears not to have seriously hindered Taiwan's rapidly expanding commerce.” But politically, the Asian tiger is not a tiger at all without political recognition and the diplomatic ties that come with it. According to one article in the Economist “The European Union and Taiwan, Bully for China (Jul 12th 2007) the European Union (EU) sent a “clear and forceful”  message to Taiwan act “sensibly and responsibly” after Chinese strong arm diplomacy over an attempt by Taipei to hold a referendum on joining the UN. Eager to please Beijing, the article reported how “China expends extraordinary energy on pestering other governments to preserve the strange limbo inhabited by Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23m that it insists is a wayward province. “Whenever Taiwan irks China, its ambassadors appear at foreign ministries worldwide, demanding that Taiwan be rebuked.” It argued: “the EU is doing China's bidding.” The EU's move came after a meeting between the Chinese ambassador to the EU, Guan Chengyuan, and a top Eurocrat, where China requested EU support otherwise Beijing threatened it might invade the island. Consequently, Taiwan UN membership is now considered a “lost cause.” 

OUTBID

Like a see-saw, when China increases in political and economic importance to the West, Taiwan decreases and its political and commercial rights compromised. In an article by Mark O’Neil entitled “Taiwan’s Weak Diplomatic Hand”, the author claimed that owing to Beijing’s increasing economic trade with the world at large there is little Taiwan can do, especially as its own formerly close relationship with the United States is appearing to lose its importance in Washington. Considering Taiwan’s military and diplomatic dependence on Washington, this is the worse news for Taipei. Within the EU too Taipei is losing ground, according to one European parliament report: “China is now the EU's second largest non-European trading partner after the US and the EU is now China's first trading partner.” An economic trading partner to both Washington and the EU, China’s new assertiveness and importance to the West is very much linked to money. 

DE-RECOGNITION

Once the “bulwark against the ‘red menace’, O’Neill reports that “it looks as though the occasions when Taipei’s man will get a handshake will be even rarer in the future.” In fact Taiwan diplomatic ties have shrunk.  Costa Rica announced that it was breaking relations with Taiwan after 63 years on June 17, bringing the number of countries recognizing the ROC down to 24. Panama and Nicaragua may well follow suit soon as most sovereign states are switching their diplomatic recognition to the PRC, recognizing or acknowledging the PRC to be the sole legitimate representative of all China. O’Neill adds: “Countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America have increasingly cut off even their informal ties to Taiwan. The level of aid and loans is a major criterion for choosing which China to recognize.”  

OBSTACLES

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s problems are plentiful. China, which has the world’s largest army repeatedly, threatens to invade Taiwan if it dares to “declare independence.” Even their voting rights are affected by Chinese pressure: “A week before Taiwan's March 23 presidential election, China put on a threatening show of military force. More than 150,000 Chinese troops staged a mock invasion of the island on the Chinese coast opposite Taiwan. Chinese naval ships also launched missiles into two practice target areas only 20 to 30 miles off Taiwan's coast (see map), disrupting shipping routes into Taiwan's ports. The whole show, say U.S. experts, was designed to bully the voters of Taiwan into not reelecting Lee Teng-hui as president of Taiwan. (Roar of the Tiger: China Threatens Force Against Taiwan, U.S. Responds by Sending Warships to Region Current Events,  April 1, 1996 ).

Continued unresolved problems with China can be extremely problematic for Taiwan’s security too. China recently planned to a introduce new commercial aviation route through the Taiwan Strait expanding its sea miles.  Seen as a threat to the island’s security, President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan said: "In doing so, regular commercial aviation services along or near the dividing line would constrain the training and operations of the island's military, particularly its air force.” (China planning Taiwan Strait route for commercial aviation by David Lague on Jan 06).

Sometimes Taiwan’s non-recognised status can be deadly to its citizens. According to Taiwan journal, China deliberately withheld information on contaminated baby corn from Thailand through its membership of the World Health Organisation, which Taiwan is not a member. The journal notes: “Despite knowing that this pathogen could cause violent food poisoning, the Chinese authorities delayed telling Taiwan's Center for Disease Control for 10 days.” Unfortunately for Taiwan, only countries can join the WHO. In addition to this, Taiwanese passport holders cannot easily travel using their passport, while there are no direct flights or ferry services to nearby China, which would benefit both Beijing and Taipei immensely.   

A MODEL FOR THE WORLD?

While there is no doubt Taiwanese enjoy a high degree of freedom and democracy and a booming economy, their political rights as citizens outside Taiwan are only second rate. What good is trade if you have no voice to speak? Despites its successive but limited free trade, the entity is weak and vulnerable to Chinese pressures as China increases its economic and political ties in the world. These pressures as I explained can be both external and internal, ultimately interfering with the political will of the Taiwanese people. Taiwan’s military dependence on a far-away country, the United States too is extremely risky and leaves the island entity exposed to sudden mutations in US foreign policy. What would happen if the US decided to leave is a fear all in Taipei feel. The failure to resolve its issues with Beijing can be dangerous at times with unpredictable spurts of tension in the South China Sea. At some point Taipei will have to enter talks with Beijing over its future. Problematic surely, no community in the world should even consider such a second rate model for their citizens.